(2025) Science and education, 3, 60-65. Odessa.

Oleksiy Chebykin,
Doctor of Psychological Sciences, Professor,
Full Member of National Academy of Pedagogical Sciences of Ukraine,
Professor at the Department of Theory and Methods of Practical Psychology,
The state institution «South Ukrainian National Pedagogical University named after K. D. Ushynsky»,
26, Staroportofrankivska, Str., Odesa, Ukraine,
ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7905-2708

ON POSSIBLE METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES OF SOCIO-PSYCHOLOGICAL RESEARCH ON PREDICTING THE MANIFESTATION OF WARS

The paper attempts to reveal certain methodological socio-psychological features of the study, forecasting the manifestation of wars in order to determine the optimal ways to overcome them. Modern types of wars, in addition to armed ones, are outlined, based on the resource involved, which include: psychological, political, informational, diplomatic, economic, hybrid proxy, and others. It is shown that the manifestations of wars can have preparatory, main, and final periods. It is emphasized that the key socio-psychological feature of wars is conflicts in which violent and aggressive actions are implemented. It is noted that the main psychological factors of wars are mainly both open and hidden various motives, goals, and actions implemented by the leadership of states or leaders of certain social groups. It is shown that in military and other branches of psychological science, research on the features of wars in relation to their socio-psychological content is still insufficient. It is stated that in modern conditions, the problem of the socio-psychological content of predicting the manifestation of wars is becoming relevant both in connection with the possibilities of their prevention and ways of optimal overcoming. Certain methodological approaches of personal, systemic, activity, cybernetic, mathematical modeling and others are presented, which can be used in the cognition of the socio-psychological content of various signs of war. It is noted that it is psychological science, which is integrated with virtually all spheres of human activity, that can act as a consolidator in the interdisciplinary knowledge of socio-psychological forecasting of various manifestations of wars. Two stages of possible methodological approaches in the study of socio-psychological forecasting of the features of the manifestation of wars are highlighted. At the previous stage, an organizational and activity game is proposed as a methodological tool to search for plausible conceptual models of predictive assessments regarding wars and the formation of teams of researchers. The second, applied, main part provides theoretical and empirical, socio-psychological research aimed at determining strategically pragmatic predictive assessments regarding the content of various signs of war and optimal ways to overcome them.

military conflicts, types of wars, interdisciplinary research, strategic, methodological principles, predictive assessments, organizational and activity game, models

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